You gotta know when to hold 'em, know when to fold 'em

I suppose I could comment on the state of the Union, but honestly, why bother? Half of it will be lies, and the other half will be pauses in between lies. None of the proposals will be enacted by a Democratic Congress, thank god, so we don't have to worry about that at least. There will be a great bit of theatre in discussing the irrelevant speech, a process Josh Marshall termed "dingbat kabuki". No phrase sums up Washington politics and media coverage better. For a further example, Time Magazine has a new blog, Swampland, staffed by the former Wonkette, former democrat turned raving moron Joe Klein, and their Washington Bureau chief, Jay Carney. Today, Carney was talking about how Bush may try to resurrect his failing presidency, and said

In late 1994 and early 1995, President Clinton was in free fall. His aides despaired. They worried he might never recover from the shellacking the Democrats took in the 1994 mid-term elections. His approval ratings were mired in the 30's, and seemed unlikely to rise.

Atrios summarized the responses of a number of commenters who pointed out factual errors, the most prominent of which is that Clinton was never as unpopular as Bush is now, and his approval rating hit the 30's once before stabilizing in the low 40's during 1994, whereas Bush just hit 28. Carney's response:

Amazingly, some Swampland readers seem to think my earlier post about President Bush's State of the Union address was too sympathetic to Bush, which proves nothing but that the left is as full of unthinking Ditto-heads as Limbaugh-land.

No, this proves nothing more than the fact that the Washington Bureau chief of Time Magazine is a frickin' moron who can't be bothered to use a search engine and check some facts, nor correct mistakes after they are pointed out to him. Someday, this man could be President....

Anyway, tonight's piece is about the proposed privatization of the Illinois State Lottery:

The state of Illinois yesterday took the first steps in selling its state lottery system, hoping to attract as much as $10 billion from investors who, in return, would own a monopoly that could turn out to be the biggest jackpot yet.

The sale, which may occur as early as the spring, would not be the first privatization of public property — both Chicago and Indiana have recently earned billions of dollars by signing long-term leases with private companies to run toll roads. But the proposed lottery sale is almost certain be one of the largest privatizations of a state-run program, and it raises concerns that states, some of them critically short of cash, are selling valuable assets that could otherwise provide consistent streams of revenue.

Under the proposed sale, Illinois would receive a multibillion-dollar one-time payment, and the lottery’s new owners would receive all revenue and profit for 75 years.

This is fantastically dumb. No company in their right mind will bid more than the lottery is worth over 75 years, nor anything more than pennies on the dollar, given the uncertainties present in 3/4 of a century worth of business. The state, on the other hand, will likely be around for the entire time period, and can actually make approximately 100 cents on the dollar. If they can't handle the marketing duties, then hire a frickin' marketing agency! It's not like other aspects of the government don't. Essentially, the state is falling for a simple annuity buyout scam, only they tricked themselves into thinking it's a good idea to make a quick buck. If the state really needs the money now (I don't see what's so different about now compared to a couple years ago or a few into the future, personally), sell some frickin' bonds! It's bad enough that lotteries are horrifically regressive sources of public revenue, but to steal from the poor to give to corporations is best left to the current Federal administration (thank god for those capital gains tax cuts!).

One further problem with the lottery, as with any gambling institution, is that people are vastly hypocritical about it. For the same reasons that states that don't allow casinos on dry land will allow them on "riverboats" affixed to docks (which can then be absolutely destroyed in large Hurricanes when the river surges), Illinois apparently doesn't allow just anyone to sell lottery tickets:

“Right now, states don’t sell lottery tickets in adult book stores, or next door to welfare offices, because lottery directors know that they can be fired by politicians,” said I. Nelson Rose, a professor at Whittier Law School in Costa Mesa, Calif., who studies gambling, and has advised the Illinois Gaming Board on other matters. “You’ll won’t see such hesitation among private companies. Those are great places to sell.”

I understand the welfare office part, since you really gain nothing as a state by trying to soak the poor, but who gives a squat about adult bookstores? Why can't they sell lottery tickets? This actually makes sense, all things considered. Why is it wrong to combine one vice which is legal but looked down upon (pornography) with one that the state itself pimps (lotteries)? Seriously, what we need is to encourage lottery sales at Starbucks, Brookstones, and fancy upscale mall stores. Remember, we want to soak the rich to give to the poor...